What to expect
We expect about 0.9 goals from Instituto and 1.1 from Boca Juniors, so Boca Juniors come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Instituto come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Not both teams to score. This shapes up as a quiet, low-key game — around 2.1 goals between the two (xG 0.9-1.1). One side keeping it tight for a clean sheet is well on the cards.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.62, which works out at about 62 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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