How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Over 1.5 goals 65%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Lanus and 1.1 from Argentinos Jrs, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.1 goals (xG 1.0-1.0), and two is enough to land it, landing about 67% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.56, which works out at about 64 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
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