How it turned out
We projected about 1.8 goals; the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Under 2.5 goals 63%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Tigre and 0.6 from Central Cordoba, so Tigre come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 1.8 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 1.8 goals in total (xG 1.2-0.6), keeping it under more often than not (about 65%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.51, which works out at about 66 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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