What to expect
We expect about 1.0 goals from Newells Old Boys and 1.2 from Velez Sarsfield, so Velez Sarsfield come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Newells Old Boys come into this on two straight wins. Velez Sarsfield come into this on three straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.2 goals in total (xG 1.0-1.2), keeping it under more often than not (about 58%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.46, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
One end-to-end spell, or a defensive mistake, and the goals can pile up before either side settles. The price is shorter than our own read of about 58%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
