How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Rosario Central to score 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Sarmiento Junin host Rosario Central at home in a Primera División clash on 31 October 2026. Sarmiento sit seventh in a fifteen-team table with twenty-one points from fourteen games and a slim +1 goal difference. They are just one point behind Barracas Central and two ahead of Huracán. Rosario Central sit on top of the league with twenty-eight points, also from fourteen games, and enjoy a healthy +11 goal difference. The leaders are a point clear of Argentinos Juniors. With the table so tight at the top and Sarmiento trying to climb into the European spots, both clubs have a lot to play for.
Sarmiento’s recent form has been uneven. In their last eight matches they have won two, drawn three and lost three. The most recent result was a 2-0 defeat away to Gimnasia L.P. before that they drew 1-1 with Barracas Central at home, then another 1-1 draw with River Plate at home. Earlier they beat Aldosivi 3-1 away, lost 3-1 to Racing Club away and drew 1-1 with Belgrano at home. Over those eight games they have scored ten goals and let in thirteen. They have kept only one clean sheet and have failed to score in one match. The three games with three or more goals show they can be involved in open play, but they have not won in their last three outings and have not won any of their last three home games, drawing all of them.
Rosario Central arrive on a wave of confidence. In their last eight fixtures they have won seven and drawn one, with no defeats. Their latest win was a 2-0 home victory over Huracán, followed by two 3-2 away wins against Atlético Tucumán, a 5-0 home thrashing of Independiente Rivadavia, a 1-1 away draw with Banfield and a 3-1 away win over Estudiantes. In those eight games they have scored nineteen goals and conceded only six, keeping four clean sheets. Their recent road record is especially strong – four wins and one draw in the last five away games. The side played their most recent match six days ago, so they will be fresh for the trip to Junín.
When the two clubs have met in the last five meetings, Rosario Central have won four times and Sarmiento once, with no draws. Those games have produced an average of 3.2 goals. The most recent encounter on 20 April 2026 ended 2-1 to Rosario Central. Given the history of relatively high-scoring affairs and the fact that both teams have been involved in games with three or more goals, we can expect another open contest, but the numbers suggest a tight, low-scoring affair overall.
Our pick is Rosario Central to score. The odds of them finding the net are high – we estimate a 73 % chance – and the price of 1.21 looks short compared with our reading of the game. Rosario have scored in 74 % of their recent matches and have a strong record away from home. For the bet to fail, Sarmiento would need to keep a clean sheet, which has only happened once in their last eight games, and Central would have to be shut out despite their four clean sheets in the same period. All signs point to the visitors getting on the scoresheet, making the price attractive.
Recent results
Rosario Central have won four of the last five meetings.
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