How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Al Ittihad to win 69%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.9 goals from Abha and 2.4 from Al Ittihad, so Al Ittihad come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Abha come into this on three straight defeats. Al Ittihad come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Al Ittihad to win. Al Ittihad shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-2.4), and we make them about 71% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.45, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Al Ittihad have won three of the last four meetings.
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