Al Diriyah v Neom SC: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 1.8 goals; the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Neom SC or Draw 70%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 0.8 goals from Al Diriyah and 0.9 from Neom SC, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 1.8 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.

Our pick: Neom SC or Draw. This covers Neom SC or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.

We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.47, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.