How it turned out
We projected about 3.7 goals and the game finished with 3. We made FK Crvena Zvezda to win 85%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 3.1 goals from FK Crvena Zvezda and 0.6 from Radnički Niš, so FK Crvena Zvezda come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.7 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
FK Crvena Zvezda come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: FK Crvena Zvezda to win. FK Crvena Zvezda are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 3.1-0.6), and we make them about 86% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 85 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.16, which works out at about 86 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
FK Crvena Zvezda have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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