How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Železničar Pančevo to win 54%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Železničar Pančevo and 1.0 from Čukarički, so Železničar Pančevo come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Železničar Pančevo to win. Železničar Pančevo are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.5-1.0), and we make them about 55% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.71, which works out at about 58 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Čukarički have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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