How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Venezia to score 1 or fewer 85%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.2 goals from Atalanta and 0.9 from Venezia, so Atalanta come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Atalanta come into this on three straight defeats. Venezia come into this on five straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Venezia to score 1 or fewer. This is about Venezia's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 0.9 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 85%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 85 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Atalanta have won three of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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