How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Monza to score 1 or fewer 80%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from Bologna and 1.0 from Monza, so Bologna come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Bologna come into this on two straight wins. Monza come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Monza to score 1 or fewer. This is about Monza's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.0 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 80%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 80 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Bologna have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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