How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 7. Both teams scored. We made Roma to win 54%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Udinese and 1.6 from Roma, so Roma come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Roma to win. Roma shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-1.6), and we make them about 56% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.59, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Roma have won four of the last five meetings.
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