How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Como or Draw 75%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Fiorentina and 1.5 from Como, so Como come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Como or Draw. This covers Como or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
The last four meetings are split 2-2, with no drawn.
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