What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Fiorentina and 1.6 from Como, so Como come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.1-1.6), and we make both teams to score about 58%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.59, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Fiorentina have won two of their last five.
✓Como have won four of their last five.
✓Two of the last four meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
✓Both teams scored in two of the last four meetings.
Recent meetings
14 Feb 2026Como 1 - 2 Fiorentina
21 Sept 2025Fiorentina 1 - 2 Como
16 Feb 2025Fiorentina 0 - 2 Como
24 Nov 2024Como 0 - 2 Fiorentina
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