Serie ASat 17 Oct · 18:45 UTC · Stadio Olimpico

Roma v Genoa prediction

RomaWWDWD

GenoaLLDWL

What to expect

We expect about 2.1 goals from Roma and 0.7 from Genoa, so Roma come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Our pick: Roma to win. Roma are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.1-0.7), and we make them about 78% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.29, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.

What the numbers say

✓Roma are unbeaten in their last five — three wins and two draws.

✓Genoa have won one of their last five.

✓Three of the last five meetings had three goals or more.

✓Both teams scored in four of the last five meetings.

Recent meetings

8 Mar 2026Genoa 2 - 1 Roma

29 Dec 2025Roma 3 - 1 Genoa

17 Jan 2025Roma 3 - 1 Genoa

15 Sept 2024Genoa 1 - 1 Roma

19 May 2024Roma 1 - 0 Genoa

Roma have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.

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