How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Juventus to win 54%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Juventus and 0.9 from Lazio, so Juventus come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Juventus to win. Juventus are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-0.9), and we make them about 56% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.73, which works out at about 58 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Lazio have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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