How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Milan or Draw 74%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Milan and 1.2 from Atalanta, so Milan come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Atalanta come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Milan or Draw. This covers Milan or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.23, which works out at about 81 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Atalanta have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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