Serie ASun 18 Oct · 16:00 UTC

Milan v Atalanta prediction

MilanWDDLW

AtalantaWWLLL

What to expect

We expect about 1.4 goals from Milan and 1.0 from Atalanta, so Milan come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Atalanta come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.4-1.0), and we make both teams to score about 55%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.

We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.75, which works out at about 57 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.

What the numbers say

✓Milan have won two of their last five.

✓Atalanta have won two of their last five.

✓Three of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals.

✓Both teams scored in four of the last five meetings.

Recent meetings

10 May 2026Milan 2 - 3 Atalanta

28 Oct 2025Atalanta 1 - 1 Milan

20 Apr 2025Milan 0 - 1 Atalanta

6 Dec 2024Atalanta 2 - 1 Milan

25 Feb 2024Milan 1 - 1 Atalanta

Atalanta have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.

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