How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 55%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Fiorentina host Napoli at the Stadio Artemio Franchi on 20 September 2026. Fiorentina sit 16th in the league with three points from four games and a -6 goal difference. They are just one point above Monza and one point clear of Bologna. Napoli sit 10th, six points from four games and a +1 goal difference, sandwiched between Sassuolo above and Atalanta below. Both teams are looking to move away from the middle of the table, and a win would tighten the gap for Fiorentina while giving Napoli a chance to climb back into the top half.
Fiorentina have won two games in a row, the most recent being a 3-0 victory over Pisa at home. Before that they beat Venezia 4-2 away, then fell 2-1 to Torino at home, lost 3-0 to Frosinone at home and 4-0 to Roma away, and drew 1-1 with Atalanta at home. In their last eight matches they have scored 11 goals and let in 12. They kept three clean sheets and failed to score in three games. Five of those eight matches featured three or more goals and both sides scored in three of them.
Napoli’s recent form shows four wins and four defeats in their last eight outings. Their latest win came 1-0 against Bologna at home, followed by a 1-0 loss to Arsenal, a 3-2 defeat at Inter, a 2-1 loss to Como at home, a 2-0 win away at Genoa and a 1-0 victory over Udinese at home. On the road they have won two of their last three away games. In those eight games Napoli have netted 12 times while conceding nine. They kept four clean sheets and were held scoreless once. Three of the matches produced three or more goals and both teams scored in three of them.
When the two clubs meet, Napoli have the clear edge. In the last five meetings Napoli have won four times and drawn once, with Fiorentina never winning. Those games have averaged 3.4 goals. The most recent encounter on 31 January 2026 ended 2-1 to Napoli. Given the recent goal-rich history and the fact that both sides have been scoring regularly, we expect a game with chances at both ends rather than a one-sided shut-out.
Our pick is both teams to score. Napoli average about 1.5 goals per game while Fiorentina are around 1.1, and the chance of each side finding the net is high – 81 % for Napoli and 63 % for Fiorentina. The price of 1.69 is shorter than our view of the match, so it looks attractive. We think a goal from each side is the most likely outcome. For the pick to fail, both teams would need to keep a clean sheet, which is less likely given the recent clean-sheet records and the goal-rich history between them.
Recent results
Napoli have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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