How it turned out
We projected about 1.9 goals; the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Not both teams to score 50%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Parma and 0.9 from Genoa, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 1.9 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Not both teams to score. This shapes up as a quiet, low-key game — around 1.9 goals between the two (xG 1.0-0.9). One side keeping it tight for a clean sheet is well on the cards.
We put the chance of that landing at about 50 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.74, which works out at about 57 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Genoa have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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