How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Milan to win 69%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Milan and 0.7 from Lecce, so Milan come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Milan come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Milan to win. Milan are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-0.7), and we make them about 71% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.28, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Milan have won five of the last five meetings.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
