How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Sassuolo to score 1 or fewer 65%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Frosinone and 1.4 from Sassuolo, so Frosinone come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Sassuolo to score 1 or fewer. This is about Sassuolo's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.4 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 65%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.83, which works out at about 55 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 2-2, with one drawn.
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