How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Napoli (Draw No Bet) 82%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.9 goals from Venezia and 1.8 from Napoli, so Napoli come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Venezia come into this on five straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Napoli (Draw No Bet). Napoli are favoured here (xG 0.9-1.8), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Napoli defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 82 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Napoli have won three of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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