What to expect
We expect about 0.9 goals from Venezia and 2.0 from Napoli, so Napoli come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Venezia come into this on five straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Napoli to win. Napoli shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-2.0), and we make them about 68% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.76, which works out at about 57 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
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