How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Inter to win 55%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Bologna and 1.6 from Inter, so Inter come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Inter to win. Inter shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-1.6), and we make them about 56% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.60, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Inter have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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