How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Fiorentina or Draw 66%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Genoa and 1.2 from Fiorentina, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Fiorentina or Draw. This covers Fiorentina or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Fiorentina have won two of the last five meetings, with three drawn.
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