What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Genoa and 1.0 from Frosinone, so Genoa come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.2 goals in total (xG 1.2-1.0), keeping it under more often than not (about 57%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.66, which works out at about 60 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Cagey games can burst open late, and a couple of goals in the closing stages would be enough to catch this out. The price is shorter than our own read of about 57%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
