What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Lecce and 0.9 from Monza, so Lecce come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.2 goals in total (xG 1.3-0.9), keeping it under more often than not (about 57%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.63, which works out at about 61 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
It only takes one early goal to change how both sides play, and a low total can unravel in a single quick spell. The price is shorter than our own read of about 57%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
