What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Venezia and 1.3 from Fiorentina, so Fiorentina come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.1-1.3), and we make both teams to score about 51%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 51 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.72, which works out at about 58 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
A clean sheet at either end undoes it, and one side shutting up shop is always on the cards. The price is shorter than our own read of about 51%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
