How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 57%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Venezia and 1.3 from Fiorentina, so Fiorentina come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Venezia come into this on three straight defeats. Fiorentina come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.1-1.3), and we make both teams to score about 57%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.64, which works out at about 61 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Venezia have won two of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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