How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 51%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Lazio and 1.1 from Milan, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Lazio come into this on four straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.1-1.1), and we make both teams to score about 51%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 51 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.95, which works out at about 51 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 2-2, with one drawn.
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