How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Napoli to win 55%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Napoli and 0.9 from Bologna, so Napoli come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Napoli come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Napoli to win. Napoli are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-0.9), and we make them about 57% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.91, which works out at about 52 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Bologna have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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