How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 58%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Monza and 1.9 from Sassuolo, so Sassuolo come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.4-1.9), and we make both teams to score about 58%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.61, which works out at about 62 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Monza have won three of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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