What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Parma and 1.0 from Cagliari, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Cagliari come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Parma to win. Parma are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.1-1.0), and we make them about 39% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 39 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.61, which works out at about 38 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Cagliari only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We make it about 39% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
