How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Under 2.5 goals 55%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Parma and 1.0 from Cagliari, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Cagliari come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.1 goals in total (xG 1.1-1.0), keeping it under more often than not (about 57%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.57, which works out at about 64 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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