What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Sudtirol and 1.1 from Ascoli, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Sudtirol or Draw. This covers Sudtirol or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Sudtirol are unbeaten in their last five — three wins and two draws.
✓Ascoli have won three of their last five.
✓Three of the last four meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last four meetings.
Recent meetings
4 Feb 2024Ascoli 1 - 2 Sudtirol
2 Sept 2023Sudtirol 3 - 1 Ascoli
15 Apr 2023Ascoli 1 - 0 Sudtirol
27 Nov 2022Sudtirol 2 - 2 Ascoli
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