How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Sudtirol or Draw 69%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Sudtirol and 1.1 from Ascoli, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Sudtirol or Draw. This covers Sudtirol or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.39, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Sudtirol have won two of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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