How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Palermo or Draw 76%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Empoli and 1.4 from Palermo, so Palermo come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Empoli come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Palermo or Draw. This covers Palermo or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.29, which works out at about 78 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Palermo have won two of the last two meetings.
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