Benevento v Cesena: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Benevento or Draw 76%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.6 goals from Benevento and 0.9 from Cesena, so Benevento come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Benevento come into this on two straight wins. Cesena come into this on three straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Benevento or Draw. This covers Benevento or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.

We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.26, which works out at about 79 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.