How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Catanzaro to win 35%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Sampdoria and 1.3 from Catanzaro, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Sampdoria come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Catanzaro to win. Catanzaro shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.3), and we make them about 37% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 35 out of 100. The price on offer is 3.60, which works out at about 28 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Sampdoria have won one of the last five meetings, with four drawn.
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