How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Palermo to win 59%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.7 goals from Palermo and 0.8 from Padova, so Palermo come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Palermo to win. Palermo are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.7-0.8), and we make them about 60% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.55, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Palermo have won two of the last two meetings.
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