Carrarese v Benevento: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Carrarese to win 37%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.3 goals from Carrarese and 1.1 from Benevento, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Carrarese come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Carrarese to win. Carrarese are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.1), and we make them about 38% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 37 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.90, which works out at about 34 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.