How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Avellino or Draw 77%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Avellino and 0.9 from Sampdoria, so Avellino come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Avellino or Draw. This covers Avellino or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.45, which works out at about 69 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
The last two meetings are split 1-1, with no drawn.
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