How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Carrarese or Draw 79%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.8 goals from Carrarese and 1.0 from Arezzo, so Carrarese come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Carrarese or Draw. This covers Carrarese or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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