How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Palermo or Draw 67%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Pisa host Palermo at their home ground in Serie B on 28 October 2026. Pisa sit sixth in the table with 14 points from eight games and a +5 goal difference. They are just one point behind Benevento in the European places and one point ahead of Südtirol. Palermo sit on top of the league with 22 points, a +10 goal difference and a three-point cushion over Modena. Both clubs have played their last match three days ago, so fatigue could be a factor. The clash could move Pisa into the European spots or let Palermo extend their lead, but the table is tight at the top and middle.
Pisa’s form in the last eight games shows a mix of results. They drew 1-1 with Verona away, then beat Cremonese 3-1 at home and Vicenza 3-0 away. After that they drew 2-2 with Mantova away, lost 3-0 to Fiorentina away and suffered a 4-1 defeat to Virtus Entella at home. In those eight matches Pisa have scored 15 and let in 12. They kept two clean sheets and were shut out once. Seven of the games featured three or more goals and both sides scored in five of them. The club is unbeaten in its last four fixtures and has won two of its last three home games.
Palermo arrive on a much stronger run. In their last eight outings they have won seven and drawn one, with no defeats. Their recent scores are a 2-1 home win over Carrarese, a 2-0 away victory at Mantova, a 4-2 win at Empoli, a 2-1 home success against Padova, a 1-1 draw away to Avellino and a 3-1 home win over Sampdoria. Over those games Palermo have scored 18 and conceded only eight, keeping two clean sheets. Five of the matches produced three or more goals and both teams scored in six of them. Their last four road games have yielded three wins and a draw, showing they can find the net away from home.
When the two sides have met before, the games have been high-scoring. In the last five meetings Pisa have won three, Palermo one and there has been one draw, with an average of 3.8 goals per match. The most recent encounter was a 2-1 victory for Pisa on 31 January 2025. Given the goal-rich history and the fact that both teams have been involved in matches with three or more goals, we can expect another open affair with chances on both ends.
We back Palermo or a draw at odds of 1.51. The price matches our view of the game. Palermo are unbeaten in eight games and sit top of the table, while Pisa have slipped a few points recently. Both sides are likely to score – Pisa have a 73 % chance to find the net and Palermo a 75 % chance – and both have a solid chance of scoring twice. If the game stays tight and Palermo fail to break through, a draw would still be a good result for us. The pick would go wrong if Pisa manage to keep a clean sheet and win, or if the match turns into a low-scoring affair. Overall, the odds give us a sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact scoreline.
Recent results
Pisa have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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