How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Juve Stabia to win 41%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Juve Stabia and 1.0 from Cesena, so Juve Stabia come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Cesena come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Juve Stabia to win. Juve Stabia are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.4-1.0), and we make them about 43% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 41 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.30, which works out at about 43 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Juve Stabia have won three of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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