How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Modena or Draw 76%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Modena and 1.0 from Mantova, so Modena come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Modena come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Modena or Draw. This covers Modena or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.22, which works out at about 82 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Modena have won three of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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