How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Virtus Entella or Draw 67%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Sampdoria and 1.1 from Virtus Entella, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Virtus Entella or Draw. This covers Virtus Entella or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.56, which works out at about 64 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Virtus Entella have won one of the last two meetings, with one drawn.
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