How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Sudtirol or Draw 76%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Sudtirol and 1.0 from Cesena, so Sudtirol come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Sudtirol or Draw. This covers Sudtirol or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Cesena have won two of the last four meetings, with two drawn.
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