How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Zeleziarne Podbrezová to win 40%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Skalica and 1.6 from Zeleziarne Podbrezová, so Zeleziarne Podbrezová come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Zeleziarne Podbrezová to win. Zeleziarne Podbrezová shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.6), and we make them about 42% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 40 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.10, which works out at about 48 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Zeleziarne Podbrezová have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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