How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Koper to win 61%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.1 goals from Koper and 1.0 from Nafta, so Koper come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Nafta come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Koper to win. Koper are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.1-1.0), and we make them about 62% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.62, which works out at about 62 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Koper have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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