How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Maribor to win 64%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.1 goals from Maribor and 0.9 from Aluminij, so Maribor come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Maribor to win. Maribor are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.1-0.9), and we make them about 65% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.45, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Maribor have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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