How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 0. We made NK Celje (Draw No Bet) 77%, but the stake came back in full.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Mura and 2.1 from NK Celje, so NK Celje come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
NK Celje come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: NK Celje (Draw No Bet). NK Celje are favoured here (xG 1.0-2.1), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a NK Celje defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.36, which works out at about 74 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
NK Celje have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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