How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Nacional to win 52%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Montevideo Wanderers and 1.7 from Nacional, so Nacional come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Nacional come into this on three straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Nacional to win. Nacional shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-1.7), and we make them about 54% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 52 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.94, which works out at about 52 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
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