How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Racing to win 43%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.2 goals from Racing and 0.9 from Boston River, so Racing come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Racing to win. Racing are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-0.9), and we make them about 45% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 43 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.00, which works out at about 50 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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