How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Under 2.5 goals 50%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.9 goals from UCV FC and 1.2 from Caracas FC, so UCV FC come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 3.1 goals in total (xG 1.9-1.2), keeping it under more often than not (about 52%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 50 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.89, which works out at about 53 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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